Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The United States needs new weapon systems, including missile defenses and other advanced military capabilities, to deter and counter China’s steady buildup of nuclear and conventional arms, according to a draft internal report by a State Department advisory board.

U.S. defense policy has stressed missile defenses against Iran and North Korea. The report, by the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB), is the first to recommend such defenses against China, including technology in space.

The draft, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, said Chinese strategy goes beyond building forces capable of retaking the island of Taiwan. China seeks to “break out” by projecting power beyond its region including sea lanes that carry energy resources for its modernization, the document said.

“Using superior U.S. military technical capacities, the United States should undertake the development of new weapons, sensors, communications, and other programs and tactics to convince China that it will not be able to overcome the U.S. militarily,” the report said.

• Read the report by the ISAB Task Force on China’s Strategic Modernization (downloads PDF)

The draft report presents a tough assessment of Chinese strategic modernization that goes beyond many current government and private-sector analyses that say that China’s military modernization does not pose a major challenge to U.S. security interests.

For example, in an interview with The Washington Times in March, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden expressed professional “admiration” for China’s rapid and sophisticated buildup and said it is “not inevitable that they will be an enemy.” The report said that to reduce the chance of a miscalculation by China that could lead to a crisis or conflict, the United States “must take seriously China’s challenge to U.S. military superiority in the Asia-Pacific region. … China’s military modernization is proceeding at a rate … to be of concern even with the most benign interpretation of China’s motivation.”

Chinese Embassy spokesman Wang Baodong said in a statement that China is “naturally becoming stronger and more influential in world affairs” after 30 years of reform, but remains committed to peaceful development and a “foreign policy of peace.”

“China will not harm anyone or pose a threat to anyone. China’s development is opportunity, not threat. Any versions of China threat will continue to be proved fallacious,” he said.

The full story in the Washington Times

September 25, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) — U.S. and Pakistani troops exchanged fire Thursday along the Pakistani-Afghan border minutes after the Pakistani military fired shots at two American helicopters that were providing cover for the troops, a U.S. military spokesman said.

The U.S. Army OH-58D Kiowas, part of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force mission in Afghanistan, were patrolling the Pakistani-Afghan border when the Pakistani military fired on them, NATO and U.S. officials said.

The Pakistani military said the fire was warning shots, and President Asif Ali Zardari said it was flares. Both Zardari and the Pakistani military said the helicopters had crossed into Pakistani territory — a charge U.S. officials denied.

Rear Adm. Greg Smith of U.S. Central Command said the helicopters were providing cover for a small U.S. military unit accompanying an Afghan border police unit on a routine patrol.

After the shots were fired at the helicopters, Smith told CNN, the U.S. troops fired “suppressing rounds” into a nearby hill to get the Pakistanis to stop. That prompted the Pakistani troops to stop firing at the helicopters and fire instead in the direction of the troops, he said. The U.S. troops then returned fire, Smith said.

No injuries were reported in the five-minute incident.

Smith and other U.S. officials said the helicopter crews did not fire back.

But the Pakistanis disagreed, asserting in a written statement that the helicopters “returned fire” after the initial shots were fired.

The helicopters passed over our border post and were well within Pakistan territory” at the time that “security forces fired anticipatory warning shots,” the Pakistani statement said.

After the shots were fired, “the helicopters returned fire and flew back.”

The Pakistani statement did not mention exchanging fire with ground troops and did not identify the shots as flares, as Zardari did in New York in an appearance with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

“They are flares,” he said in response to a question asking why the Pakistani military was firing on NATO helicopters. “Just to make sure that they know they crossed the border line.”

Asked if such warnings will continue, he replied, “Sometimes the border is so mixed that they don’t realize that they crossed the border.”

Rice, off camera, agreed that “the border is very unclear” and “inhospitable.”

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman reiterated the United States’ stance that the two helicopters were over Afghan territory. “The Pakistanis need to provide the U.S. a reason to why this took place,” he said.

The ISAF issued a news release saying that “ISAF helicopters received small-arms fire from a Pakistan military checkpoint along the border near Tanai district, Khowst.”

“At no time did ISAF helicopters cross into Pakistani airspace.” The ISAF did not mention ground troops or say whether the helicopters returned fire.

Both the ISAF and Pakistani military said they are working to resolve the issue.

Last week, Zardari said Pakistan would not allow foreign nations to violate its sovereignty to pursue terrorists.

“We will not tolerate the violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity by any power in the name of combating terrorism,” he said in his first speech to Parliament as president.

His remark followed a similar declaration from Pakistan’s military chief, Gen. Parvez Kayani, who said this month that Pakistan’s territorial integrity “will be defended at all cost, and no external force is allowed to conduct operations.”

A senior defense official in the Pentagon said the Pentagon is trying to determine the details of Thursday’s incident.

“What we don’t know if this was just a case of trigger-happy members of the Frontier Corps,” the official said, “or whether in fact the Pakistani military does have orders to fire on our helicopters.”

“We are confident our helicopters were on the Afghan side of the border, and we have no report they fired back,” the official added.

Top U.S. commanders will be talking to the Pakistani military about the incident to determine if there was a misunderstanding and to ensure it doesn’t happen again, a U.S. official familiar with details of the incident said.

The official said this is the first verified incident of U.S. troops being fired upon by Pakistani forces. There were at least two previous reports in recent days out of Pakistan about similar incidents, but the United States has said neither of those reports was true.

International Herald Tribune

By THOMAS FULLER

September 14, 2008

KUALA LUMPUR: By the most obvious yardstick, this country of 25 million people is a democracy: Malaysia has held regular elections since independence from Britain five decades ago.

Yet during that time power has remained in the hands of one coalition, the media have remained slavishly pro-government, the courts have often hewed closely to the government line and critics of the country’s leadership have been detained without trial in periodic crackdowns.

Now Malaysia may be on the brink of a liberal, more democratic era.

The governing coalition is facing the very real possibility of losing its grip on power to the country’s most famous opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, who says he has enough votes to bring down the government and might do so as early as this week.

Anwar promises that if he were to become prime minister, he would not only scrap laws that muzzle criticism, but also upend the father-knows-best style of government and end a longstanding policy that favored the country’s majority Malays over other ethnic groups.

“I think we’re on an irreversible trend of democratization, because it’s coming from the bottom up,” said Sivarasa Rasiah, a human rights lawyer and one of many opposition members elected to Parliament in March.

If Anwar succeeds in taking over the government, his actions could have implications far beyond Malaysia.

A onetime Islamist student radical, Anwar has emerged over the past decade as one of the leading proponents of the idea that Islam and liberal democracy are complementary. He has cultivated friendships with leaders who share his views in Turkey and Indonesia, and he has built bridges to the West.

He once served as a catalyst for the increasing religiosity among Malaysia’s Muslims. Today he walks the fine line between the secularism of the country’s Constitution and the demands by some Islamic forces, including those in his own coalition, for socially conservative policies.

Anwar, a former deputy prime minister who once mingled with the very establishment he is now challenging, was re-elected to Parliament in August.

Anwar initially vowed to bring down the government by Sept. 16, the anniversary of the two states on the island of Borneo, Sabah and Sarawak, joining the federation. Both states are rich in timber, oil and other natural resources and Anwar is tapping into resentment that they do not have adequate representation in the federal government.

As he and his allies in the opposition gained increased political backing over the past several months, the government under Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has begun to strike back. In July, Anwar was charged with sodomy for the second time in his career, in a case that a large majority of Malaysians surveyed in opinion polls say reeks of politics. And several newspapers have been warned about stepping out of line.

On Friday, a member of Parliament for the opposition, a newspaper reporter and a prominent anti-government blogger were detained under the internal security act, which allows for indefinite detention without trial. Syed Hamid Albar, the home minister, told reporters on Saturday that the blogger and Parliament member had been detained for inciting ethnic tensions but that the reporter, who was released Saturday after 16 hours, was only questioned about her reporting on a recent controversy involving a member of the governing party.

The governing party has leveled accusations of corruption in the opposition’s campaign to win over defectors: Khairy Jamaluddin, one of the party’s most articulate members, has denounced what he calls “underhanded tactics,” saying members of Parliament have reported being offered money and positions of power in a future government, a charge the opposition denies.

Last week, the battle between the government and opposition flirted with absurdity. First, the governing party dispatched about 50 government lawmakers to Taiwan for what it called an agricultural “study trip,” which appeared to be an attempt to stop them from crossing over to Anwar’s side.

On Friday, opposition lawmakers followed them to Taiwan, checking into the same hotel in the hopes of convincing would-be defectors to take the leap.

Anwar initially vowed to bring down the government by Tuesday, saying he had written commitments from enough lawmakers to force the government’s collapse. But he now concedes that the governing coalition’s move to send lawmakers to Taiwan could succeed in drawing off some support, forcing him to delay his bid for power.

The changes that Anwar has proposed could change Malaysia substantially and quickly.

“All the draconian, oppressive laws must go,” Anwar said in a recent interview.

An Indian army trooper was shot to death Monday on the border between the Indian- and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir, the Indian Defense spokesman said.

Lt. Col. Goswami refused to confirm if it was a violation of the bi-lateral cease-fire agreement between India and Pakistan for the border known as the Line of Control.

There was small arms fire and grenades launched from across the Line of Control in the Mendhar sector on Monday morning, Goswami said.

The Indian Army said last week that Pakistani troops fired in the Tangdhar sector of the Line of Control in northern Kashmir, which they called a clear cease-fire violation.

The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan are scheduled to meet in Islamabad this week to resume talks between the two neighbors.

Pakistan denied any weapons were fired from their side.

Kashmir has been the source of bitter dispute and two wars between India and Pakistan.

Both control parts of the region, which is predominantly Muslim. Kashmir has been in the throes of a bloody separatist campaign for the past 18 years.

While the authorities here say 43,000 persons have been killed in the violence, various rights groups and non-governmental organizations have put the figure at twice that number.